Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| Atlas FC O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 1.5 | 75% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Both Teams to Score | 56% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 44% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 43% |
| Atlas FC O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 1.5 | 38% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Atlas FC (-1.5) | 16% |
| Atlas FC O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| CF Monterrey (-1.5) | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Atlas FC (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| CF Monterrey (-2.5) | 5% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, atlas fc vs. cf monterrey - more markets stands at 93% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the Liga MX game, scheduled for August 1 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews Atlas FC vs. CF Monterrey - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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