Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 98% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 97% |
| Game 1 Winner | 92% |
| Game 2 Winner | 92% |
| Game 3 Winner | 92% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 79% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 70% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 70% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 67% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 65% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 64% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? | 62% |
| Game 4 Winner | 59% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 52% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 49% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 48% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 48% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 47% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? | 32% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 5% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 98% probability to lol: t1 vs furia esports (bo5) - mid-season invitational playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket round 1 match between T1 and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 6 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
This page reviews LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade LoL: T1 vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitati… on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →