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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 85% Game 2 Winner 72% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 72% Game 1 Winner 71% Volume: $107K Liquidity: $695K Closes: 13 Sept 2026
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LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner85%
Game 2 Winner72%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon72%
Game 1 Winner71%
Game 3 Winner71%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)70%
Game 4 Winner63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon62%
O/U 3.5 Games60%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?56%
First Blood in Game 3?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?55%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?55%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor53%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon52%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
First Blood in Game 4?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?44%
Game Handicap: C9 (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)41%
First Blood in Game 1?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?39%
First Blood in Game 2?38%
Any Player Quadra Kill29%
Any Player Quadra Kill29%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill25%
O/U 4.5 Games23%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors11%
Any Player Penta Kill10%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: cloud9 vs shopify rebellion (bo5) - lcs playoffs stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Cloud9 and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET.…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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