Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 95% |
| CF América O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| O/U 1.5 | 80% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 80% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| Team to Advance | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score | 61% |
| O/U 2.5 | 56% |
| CF América 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| CF América O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF América 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF América 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half (-1.5) | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half (-2.5) | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 47% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half (-2.5) | 46% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 41% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| O/U 3.5 | 34% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 30% |
| CF América 1st Half (-2.5) | 26% |
| CF América (-1.5) | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 23% |
| CF América O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 23% |
| CF América 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 22% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half (-1.5) | 22% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| O/U 4.5 | 17% |
| CF América 2nd Half (-1.5) | 17% |
| CF Monterrey (-1.5) | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| CF América (-2.5) | 10% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
| CF América 1st Half (-1.5) | 8% |
| CF América 2nd Half (-2.5) | 5% |
| CF Monterrey (-2.5) | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of cf américa vs. cf monterrey - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the Leagues Cup game, scheduled for September 2 at 11:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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