Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ulsan HD FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ulsan HD’s meeting with FC Anyang is priced as a near-certainty on this contract, with the crowd-implied probability at 100% YES even though mainstream football markets still treat the fixture itself as contestable rather than predetermined. That gap is important: sportsbook-style previews for the same K-League game have leaned towards Ulsan as a favourite, but not at anything close to certainty, with one preview citing market-implied win chances of roughly 41% for Ulsan, 31% for Anyang and 29% for the draw in the earlier April meeting, while another August preview flagged Anyang +0.5 on the Asian handicap at around -108 and a 1-1 correct-score lean[11][9]. For historical context, the sides have produced mixed results rather than a one-way pattern, including Ulsan’s 1-0 win in April 2025, a 1-1 draw in April 2026, and a 0-0 at Ulsan in earlier comparable coverage, which argues for treating any “more markets” outcome as dependent on the exact market specification rather than the fixture outcome alone[4][6][9].
The key trader watchpoints are whether this market resolves from a specific platform rule about additional listed markets, and whether official match-centre data confirms kick-off and line-up availability for the 2 August fixture at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium[2][5]. FotMob and 365Scores both list the game for 10:30 UTC, while Sofascore shows a different April meeting at Anyang, so the main dependency is verifying that the contract is tied to the August Ulsan home fixture rather than the earlier reverse leg[1][2][5]. Any late team-news, postponement, or market-definition clarification would matter more here than ordinary form, because a 100% reading on prediction markets can reflect contract mechanics or data assumptions as much as true match consensus[9][17].
Methodology
We track Ulsan HD FC vs. FC Anyang - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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