Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara. This market refers to the tennis match between Dany Robas and Filippo Valdetara in the ITF M25 Lausanne Men, Qualifying, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolv…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade ITF M25 Lausanne Men: Dany Robas vs Filippo Valdetara on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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