United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina

Platform comparison

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Round of 32 match between the United States and Bosnia and Herzegovina takes place on Wednesday, 1 July 2026 at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium. The USMNT, having topped Group D with victories over Paraguay and Australia, faces Bosnia for the first time in official competition, though the sides have met three times previously, including a dramatic 4-3 US win in Sarajevo in 2013.

Historically, US knockout-stage odds have diverged sharply from prediction-market implied probabilities when facing UEFA opponents with limited World Cup experience. Bosnia, appearing in only their second World Cup (2014 and 2026), carries a +800 moneyline at major sportsbooks, implying roughly a 12.5% chance of victory, while the current prediction-market implied probability sits at 19% YES for Bosnia. This 6.5% gap suggests prediction markets may be pricing in Bosnia’s defensive resilience more aggressively than traditional bookmakers, who lean heavily on the US’s home advantage and recent group-stage form.

Traders should monitor Mauricio Pochettino’s final squad announcement and Bosnia’s pre-match fitness updates, as any injury to key defenders could shift the odds further. Recent coverage from ESPN notes the US’s -185 moneyline reflects strong confidence in their knockout momentum, yet Fox Sports highlights a worrying stat: the US has struggled against UEFA sides in past knockout rounds, a factor prediction markets may be weighting more heavily than sportsbooks. Watch for live odds movements as the match approaches, particularly if Bosnia’s defensive line shows vulnerability in warm-ups.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.