Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots on target | 51% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots on target | 51% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Noa Lang: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Mark Flekken: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Munir El Kajoui: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Donyell Malen: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Guus Til: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Memphis Depay: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Wout Weghorst: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 40% |
| Guus Til: 3+ goals | 27% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ assists | 27% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Guus Til: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ assists | 26% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Donyell Malen: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Guus Til: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Memphis Depay: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Wout Weghorst: 4+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Guus Til: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Wout Weghorst: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ goals + assists | 2% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ shots | 1% |
| Noa Lang: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Memphis Depay: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Noa Lang: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brian Brobbey: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Cody Gakpo: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Donyell Malen: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
The Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Netherlands and Morocco, scheduled for June 29 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Netherlands vs. Morocco - Player Props on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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