Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Any Player Rampage | 59% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 57% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 52% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 49% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) | 41% |
| Game 1 Winner | 37% |
| Game 2 Winner | 37% |
| Match Winner | 33% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 29% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 28% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 27% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Rampage | 25% |
| Any Player Rampage | 7% |
Market context
Market consensus: 59% chance of dota 2: nigma galaxy vs betboom team (bo3) - esports world cup playoffs. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Dota 2 Quarterfinal 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and BetBoom Team in the Esports World Cup Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 16 at 7:00AM ET. This m…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Esports… on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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