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Counter-Strike: Heroic vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Counter-Strike: Heroic vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi vs Polymarket.

Match Winner 89% Map 2 Winner 81% Map 1 Winner 79% Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5) 60% Volume: $107K Liquidity: $41K Closes: 9 Aug 2026
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Counter-Strike: Heroic vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
89% 11% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
89% 11% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner89%
Map 2 Winner81%
Map 1 Winner79%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs ASTRAL (+1.5)60%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs ASTRAL (+6.5)51%
O/U 2.5 Games33%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 89% probability to counter-strike: heroic vs astral (bo3) - esports world cup open qualifier play-ins. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round of 32 match between Heroic and ASTRAL in the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins, initially scheduled for August 9 at 5:00AM ET. This market will …

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Heroic vs ASTRAL (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Play-Ins across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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