Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-3.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-6.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BASEMENT BOYS (-6.5) vs The Last Resort (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BASEMENT BOYS (-3.5) vs The Last Resort (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BASEMENT BOYS (-9.5) vs The Last Resort (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BASEMENT BOYS (-3.5) vs The Last Resort (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BASEMENT BOYS (-6.5) vs The Last Resort (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-3.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BMB (-1.5) vs The Last Resort (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BASEMENT BOYS (-3.5) vs The Last Resort (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TLR (-1.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: The Last Resort (-9.5) vs BASEMENT BOYS (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BASEMENT BOYS (-9.5) vs The Last Resort (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs The Last Resort (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Group B — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between BASEMENT BOYS and The Last Resort in the European Pro League Series 8 Group B, initially scheduled for July 7 at 4:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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