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Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Match Winner 92% Map 2 Winner 87% Map 1 Winner 82% Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs 5star (+1.5) 72% Volume: $100K Liquidity: $219K Closes: 10 Sept 2026
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Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 5star (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 92% 8% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 92% 8% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner92%
Map 2 Winner87%
Map 1 Winner82%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs 5star (+1.5)72%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs 5star (+3.5)71%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs 5star (+3.5)68%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.563%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs 5star (+3.5)55%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.550%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-6.5) vs 5star (+6.5)46%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.546%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-6.5) vs 5star (+6.5)45%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-6.5) vs 5star (+6.5)39%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.537%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.534%
O/U 2.5 Games25%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: astralis vs 5star (bo3) - fissure playground group a stands at 92% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between Astralis and 5star in the FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group A, initially scheduled for September 10, 2026 at…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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