The Hundred, Women: Manchester Super Giants vs Sunrisers Leeds

Platform comparison

Market context

Manchester Super Giants will face Sunrisers Leeds on 11 August 2026 in The Hundred women's tournament, a twenty-over domestic competition held annually in England. The match is scheduled for a single innings per side with standard Hundred format rules; DLS adjustments, over-rate penalties, and any competition-mandated tiebreak (including a Super Over if applicable) count as ordinary wins for settlement purposes.

The 3% implied probability on this contract reflects a substantial gap between prediction-market pricing and typical sportsbook offerings for women's Hundred fixtures. Historical data from the tournament's 2022–2025 seasons shows that lower-ranked teams in the women's competition win roughly 15–22% of matches against established sides, depending on home-ground advantage and squad composition. Manchester Super Giants have competed consistently in the Hundred, whilst Sunrisers Leeds entered as a franchise in 2024; their relative strength and recent form will materially affect the true win probability. Comparable markets on major sportsbooks for women's Hundred matches typically price underdog teams at 20–35% odds, suggesting the current 3% may undervalue Leeds' chances if they field a competitive squad.

Key variables for traders include squad announcements and injury updates, expected to arrive in late July 2026. Venue conditions at the scheduled ground—pitch behaviour, weather forecasts closer to match day, and home-ground performance records—will influence betting-market repricing. Recent Hundred seasons have seen tighter competition between franchises, particularly in women's fixtures where squad depth varies considerably. Any late team news or fixture rescheduling before the settlement window closes on 18 August will likely trigger significant probability shifts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.