The Hundred: London Spirit vs MI London

Platform comparison

Market context

London Spirit face MI London in a Hundred fixture at Lord’s, with the current market showing **0% YES**, which is far below the cricketing reality of a match that has already been played in this rivalry this season. The most recent meeting on 29 July ended with London Spirit beating MI London by seven wickets after chasing 165, while another August report on the same matchup shows MI London and London Spirit tying on 151 apiece at The Oval in a separate fixture. ESPN’s head-to-head page also shows MI London have generally held the better of this derby across recent seasons, including a run of five straight wins before the 2026 reversal, so a zero-implied contract looks detached from the historical balance of results and from normal pre-match pricing patterns in a local derby.[6][11][2]

For traders comparing platforms, the key point is that a prediction-market price at 0% would usually sit well below even the most one-sided sportsbook line unless the event is already resolved or the market is mis-specified. In practical terms, analyst-style previews have framed MI London as the stronger side on squad depth and recent head-to-head performance, but they also note Lord’s tends to produce competitive white-ball scores and that batting first has been a material advantage there, which keeps upset and tie risk alive.[7][10] The contract wording matters too: DLS, over-rate penalties, forfeits and on-field tiebreaks all count as ordinary wins, so a rain-shortened or tie-break finish would still settle to a winner rather than void the market.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.