The Hundred: Birmingham Phoenix vs Sunrisers Leeds

Platform comparison

Market context

Birmingham Phoenix’s men face Sunrisers Leeds at Edgbaston in The Hundred, and the live market picture is already badly skewed: the crowd-implied probability is at 0% YES, while contemporaneous match coverage and pre-match trading references pointed to Sunrisers as the stronger side. That is consistent with the recent scoreline context as well, because Sunrisers had already beaten Phoenix earlier on the same day in the women’s fixture at Edgbaston, underlining how one-sided the venue mood has been for the Phoenix camp.[3][18][15]

Historically, this is the kind of contract where a 0% price usually reflects a settled pre-match favourite, not a mathematically certain outcome. Phoenix came into the 2026 Men’s Hundred with only one win from five and a four-match losing run, while Sunrisers had three wins from five and had recently produced the competition’s highest team total, 241 for 2 against London Spirit; that combination explains why analyst-style previews and WinViz lean Sunrisers, even if prediction markets can still leave a small residual chance for an upset.[11][15][18]

The main catalysts are simple: toss, confirmed XIs, and any late injury or workload news, because The Hundred’s short format can swing quickly on a single batting spell or powerplay collapse. The match was scheduled for 18:30 local time at Edgbaston, and live coverage indicated Sunrisers were already favoured in the vicinity of 69% once conditions and form were priced in, which makes the gap between sportsbook-style modelling, analyst consensus, and a 0% crowd price the key divergence to watch.[9][18][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.