CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

Villarreal C face Levante UD in a club friendly, and the exact-score market is pricing a fairly specific outcome rather than a broad match result. The crowd-implied **17% YES** points to a single listed scoreline carrying meaningful weight, but it still leaves most of the probability mass on the field of *any other score*, which is usually the dominant outcome in exact-score contracts.

Historical and comparable data lean towards a Villarreal-favoured game with goals, but not a clean read on the precise tally. Sportradar’s head-to-head record shows Villarreal have won 26 of 41 meetings since 1996, with Levante winning 10 and five draws, while FootyStats’ smaller recent sample also has Villarreal ahead in the matchup. Recent official-season results between the sides were low-scoring in both directions, including Levante 0-1 Villarreal in February 2026, which is the kind of prior that can keep exact-score pricing anchored around narrow home wins or modest totals rather than a high-scoring script[2][3][4].

For catalysts, traders should watch line-ups, late squad rotation, and whether the fixture is treated as a full first-team workout or a development-heavy friendly, because club friendlies often move sharply on announced selections more than on long-run head-to-head data. The market also depends on the match actually being played before the settlement window closes, and the exact-score book remains sensitive to postponement or format changes because settlement is tied to the final score regardless of whether the game lasts 90 or 120 minutes[1]. No clearly authoritative sportsbook consensus is visible in the supplied sources, so the main comparison is between the crowd’s 17% and the historical tendency towards Villarreal control rather than a strong market-wide conviction on one exact number.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.