Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Penn State vs. Temple | 100% |
| Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| Spread -10.5 | 100% |
| Spread -13.5 | 100% |
| Spread -14.5 | 100% |
| Spread -16.5 | 100% |
| Spread -17.5 | 100% |
| O/U 30.5 | 100% |
| O/U 32.5 | 100% |
| O/U 34.5 | 100% |
| 2H Moneyline | 100% |
| 1H Moneyline | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 100% |
| Temple O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Spread -15.5 | 100% |
| Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 100% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 91% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 16.5 | 91% |
| Temple 2H O/U 4.5 | 91% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 91% |
| 2H O/U 17.5 | 91% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 91% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 91% |
| Penn State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Penn State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Temple O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Carson Hansen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Rocco Becht: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brett Eskildsen: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Peoples: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Koby Howard: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Benjamin Brahmer: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Andrew Rappleyea: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Quinton Martin Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Chase Sowell: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keveun Mason: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Cam Wallace: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jayce Freeman: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Peter Clarke: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaxon Smolik: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| JoJo Bermudez: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Colin Chase: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| De'Carlos Young: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keith Jones: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ryder Kusch: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Spread -44.5 | 50% |
| Gabe Burkle: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zay Robinson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Temple O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Penn State O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Penn State 2H O/U 18.5 | 10% |
| Temple 2H O/U 6.5 | 10% |
| Temple 2H O/U 8.5 | 10% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 10% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 10% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 10% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 10% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -23.5 | 1% |
| O/U 49.5 | 1% |
| Spread -21.5 | 1% |
| O/U 51.5 | 1% |
| O/U 50.5 | 1% |
| Spread -22.5 | 1% |
| Spread -20.5 | 1% |
| Spread -24.5 | 1% |
| Spread -27.5 | 1% |
| Spread -31.5 | 1% |
| Spread -34.5 | 1% |
| O/U 36.5 | 1% |
| O/U 38.5 | 1% |
| O/U 40.5 | 1% |
| O/U 42.5 | 1% |
| O/U 44.5 | 1% |
| O/U 46.5 | 1% |
| O/U 48.5 | 1% |
| O/U 52.5 | 1% |
| O/U 56.5 | 1% |
| O/U 58.5 | 1% |
| O/U 60.5 | 1% |
| O/U 62.5 | 1% |
| O/U 64.5 | 1% |
| O/U 66.5 | 1% |
| O/U 68.5 | 1% |
| O/U 70.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 31.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 34.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 37.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 40.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 43.5 | 1% |
| Temple O/U 10.5 | 1% |
| Temple O/U 13.5 | 1% |
| Temple O/U 16.5 | 1% |
| Temple O/U 19.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 30.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 33.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 36.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 39.5 | 1% |
| Penn State O/U 42.5 | 1% |
| Spread -41.5 | 1% |
| Spread -40.5 | 1% |
| Spread -38.5 | 1% |
| Spread -37.5 | 1% |
| Spread -32.5 | 1% |
| Spread -30.5 | 1% |
| Spread -29.5 | 1% |
| Spread -28.5 | 1% |
| Spread -26.5 | 1% |
| Spread -25.5 | 1% |
| Spread -19.5 | 1% |
| Spread -18.5 | 1% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 18.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 20.5 | 0% |
| Penn State 1H O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Temple 1H O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Temple 1H O/U 6.5 | 0% |
| Temple 1H O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of penn state vs. temple. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Penn State and Temple, scheduled for September 12 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Penn State" if Penn State win the game. …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $122K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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