Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 28.5 | 95% |
| O/U 30.5 | 91% |
| O/U 32.5 | 89% |
| O/U 34.5 | 85% |
| O/U 36.5 | 81% |
| O/U 38.5 | 78% |
| Texas O/U 18.5 | 75% |
| Ohio State O/U 17.5 | 75% |
| O/U 40.5 | 74% |
| Ohio State O/U 18.5 | 74% |
| Texas O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| O/U 42.5 | 72% |
| 2H Moneyline | 67% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 67% |
| Ohio State O/U 20.5 | 67% |
| O/U 44.5 | 64% |
| Texas O/U 21.5 | 64% |
| Ohio State O/U 21.5 | 62% |
| Texas O/U 22.5 | 61% |
| O/U 46.5 | 60% |
| O/U 47.5 | 58% |
| Bo Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 56% |
| Ohio State O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Texas O/U 2.5 | 53% |
| Spread: Texas (-1.5) | 52% |
| Ohio State O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| Devin McCuin: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Isaiah West: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| Michael Masunas: Anytime Touchdown | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| Texas 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Chris Henry Jr.: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brandon Inniss: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Derrek Cooper: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Julian Sayin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sterling Berkhalter: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| James Simon: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nate Roberts: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason Williams: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Welcing: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Kyle Parker: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nick Townsend: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brock Boyd: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Texas O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Texas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| O/U 50.5 | 49% |
| 1H Moneyline | 49% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Ohio State O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| Texas O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Ohio State vs. Texas | 47% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| Texas 1H O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 46% |
| Ohio State O/U 26.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 43% |
| Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 42% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Texas O/U 27.5 | 41% |
| O/U 54.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| Ohio State O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| Texas O/U 28.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Spread -6.5 | 34% |
| O/U 56.5 | 34% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 34% |
| Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| Ohio State O/U 29.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 32% |
| Texas O/U 30.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| O/U 58.5 | 29% |
| Jeremiah Smith: Anytime Touchdown | 28% |
| Ohio State O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 27% |
| Texas O/U 31.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| O/U 60.5 | 25% |
| Hollywood Smothers: Anytime Touchdown | 25% |
| Spread -8.5 | 24% |
| O/U 62.5 | 22% |
| Arch Manning: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Ryan Wingo: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Cam Coleman: Anytime Touchdown | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Raleek Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 20% |
| Spread -12.5 | 20% |
| O/U 64.5 | 19% |
| Spread -13.5 | 18% |
| Spread -12.5 | 18% |
| Ja'Kobi Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 17% |
| Spread -15.5 | 16% |
| O/U 66.5 | 15% |
| Legend Bey: Anytime Touchdown | 15% |
| Emmett Mosley V: Anytime Touchdown | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -31.5 | 13% |
| O/U 68.5 | 13% |
| Spread -15.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Spread -18.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 10% |
| Spread -18.5 | 10% |
| Spread -19.5 | 10% |
| Spread -34.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| Spread -22.5 | 6% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| Spread -24.5 | 5% |
| Spread -27.5 | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 95% chance of ohio state vs. texas. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Ohio State and Texas, scheduled for September 12 at 7:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Ohio State" if Ohio State win the game. Th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $139K.
Methodology
We track Ohio State vs. Texas across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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