Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Londrina EC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| Botafogo FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 10% |
| Botafogo FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 7% |
| O/U 4.5 | 1% |
| Londrina EC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Londrina EC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Botafogo FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Londrina EC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Botafogo FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Botafogo FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Londrina EC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Londrina EC will host Botafogo FC on 20 July in a Serie B fixture scheduled for 19:00 ET. The 0% implied probability on this contract suggests traders are pricing near-zero likelihood of additional markets being offered for this specific matchup on the underlying platform. This reflects either settled expectations around market availability or genuine scarcity of secondary betting interest in this particular pairing within the settlement window.
Historical patterns in Serie B coverage show uneven market depth across fixtures. Larger clubs like Botafogo typically attract supplementary betting markets—goal-scorer props, corner totals, handicap variants—whilst mid-table sides such as Londrina often see minimal secondary-market expansion. The current null probability aligns with this precedent: Botafogo's profile alone may not guarantee extended market offerings if the host platform prioritises liquidity concentration on headline match outcomes rather than granular derivatives.
Traders monitoring this contract should track platform announcements regarding Serie B market expansion and any last-minute fixture changes affecting scheduling. Botafogo's competitive standing and injury updates matter insofar as they influence the sportsbook's willingness to hedge additional markets; a heavily favoured Botafogo side might justify richer market coverage, whilst a tight contest could suppress it. The settlement window closes 23:00 UTC on 20 July, leaving minimal post-match window for new market launches. Cross-platform comparison shows no meaningful divergence here—major sportsbooks rarely backfill Serie B secondary markets after kickoff.
Methodology
We track Londrina EC vs. Botafogo FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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