Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Game Spread +/-3.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for US Open, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Felipe Meligeni Alves. This market refers to the tennis match between Dalibor Svrcina and Felipe Meligeni Alves in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 24, 2026 at 3:30PM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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