Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
86% | 14% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
86% | 14% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 86% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 61% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 57% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Match O/U 38.5 | 54% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Match O/U 40.5 | 49% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 45% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 39% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 2 Winner | 38% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Match O/U 36.5 | 38% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 1 Winner | 37% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 3 Winner | 36% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 34% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 32% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev | 28% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 86% chance of wimbledon atp: jiri lehecka vs alexander zverev. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jiri Lehecka and Alexander Zverev in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 6, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
We track Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexander Zverev across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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