Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Game Spread +/-4.5 | 100% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of phan thiet 3: cruz hewitt vs timofei derepasko. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Cruz Hewitt and Timofei Derepasko in the Phan Thiet 3, originally scheduled for September 9, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Phan Thiet 3: Cruz Hewitt vs Timofei Derepasko on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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