Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 Winner | 97% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley | 91% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 3 Winner | 67% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Match O/U 38.5 | 32% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 19% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to us open atp: tomas etcheverry vs jacob fearnley. This market refers to the tennis match between Tomas Etcheverry and Jacob Fearnley in the US Open ATP, originally scheduled for September 2, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etc…
Methodology
This page reviews US Open ATP: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jacob Fearnley across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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