Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov | 0% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Estoril Open, Qualification: Joao Domingues vs Timofey Skatov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of estoril open, qualification: joao domingues vs timofey skatov. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Joao Domingues and Timofey Skatov in the Estoril Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 18, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This mar…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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