Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 3 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics | 0% |
| Completed Match | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: luca van assche vs marton fucsovics. This market refers to the tennis match between Luca Van Assche and Marton Fucsovics in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luca Van As…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Wimbledon ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Marton Fucsovics on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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