Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 97% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 96% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 92% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 92% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 91% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 83% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 82% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 79% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 76% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 76% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 76% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 58% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 56% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 53% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 53% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 52% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 51% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 41% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 35% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 29% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 25% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 19% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 18% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 16% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 15% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 15% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, united states vs. belgium - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews United States vs. Belgium - Player Props across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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