Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Paraguay Corners: O/U 1.5 | 95% |
| Total Corners: O/U 6.5 | 88% |
| Total Corners: O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 74% |
| Paraguay Corners: O/U 2.5 | 72% |
| Total Corners: O/U 8.5 | 68% |
| Paraguay Corners: O/U 3.5 | 64% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 61% |
| 1st Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 59% |
| Total Corners: O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| Total Corners: Odd or Even | 50% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Germany Corners: O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Total Corners: O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Total Corners: O/U 11.5 | 34% |
| 2nd Half Total Corners: O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| Total Corners: O/U 12.5 | 24% |
| Team to Take First Corner | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, germany vs. paraguay - total corners stands at 95% likelihood according to current market consensus. Total corners markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Germany and Paraguay, scheduled for June 29 at 4:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Germany vs. Paraguay - Total Corners on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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