Argentina vs. Switzerland - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

On July 11, 2026, Argentina and Switzerland will meet in the FIFA World Cup quarter-final, with the match concluding after 90 minutes of regulation and stoppage time. The prediction market for an "Exact Score" outcome currently implies a 10% probability for the specific result, while major sportsbooks price Argentina at -140 moneyline odds and favour a total under 2.5 goals at -155. This divergence suggests that while Argentina is the clear favourite to win, the market for a precise scoreline remains highly speculative compared to the broader win-draw-win consensus.

Historically, Switzerland have never beaten Argentina in World Cup history, having lost both previous encounters in 1966 and 2014. However, Switzerland’s 2026 run is their most successful since 1954, having reached the quarter-finals by defeating Colombia on penalties. This resilience mirrors their 2014 performance where they pushed Argentina to extra time, indicating that a narrow margin or a low-scoring affair is a plausible historical frame for interpreting the current 10% exact-score probability.

Traders should monitor Argentina’s squad rotation announcements following their group-stage victories against Jordan and Austria, as fatigue could impact their attacking output. ESPN’s live odds data confirms Argentina’s -140 favourite status, but the +450 odds for a Switzerland win highlight the volatility in this specific matchup. With the settlement window ending on July 12, 2026, any delay in the match schedule or injury news prior to the 9:00 PM ET kickoff will be the primary catalyst for price movement in this contract.

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Methodology

This page reviews Argentina vs. Switzerland - Exact Score across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.