Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 92% |
| Map 2 Winner | 86% |
| Map 1 Winner | 83% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) | 71% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 68% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 64% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs Lynn Vision (+6.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs Lynn Vision (+6.5) | 43% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-6.5) vs Lynn Vision (+6.5) | 39% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 38% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 37% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 34% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 26% |
Market context
Market consensus: 92% chance of counter-strike: vitality vs lynn vision (bo3) - esports world cup group c. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between Vitality and Lynn Vision in the Esports World Cup Group C, initially scheduled for August 16, 2026 …
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group C across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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