Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-6.5) vs ALKA GAMING (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-3.5) vs ALKA GAMING (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-9.5) vs ALKA GAMING (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ALKA GAMING (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ALKA GAMING (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: ALKA GAMING (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ALKA GAMING (-9.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: ALKA (-1.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ALKA GAMING (-3.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CHAMA (-1.5) vs ALKA GAMING (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BORRACHEIROS (-12.5) vs ALKA GAMING (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: ALKA GAMING (-6.5) vs BORRACHEIROS (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, counter-strike: alka vs borracheiros (bo3) - cct south america series 4 group stage stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between ALKA and BORRACHEIROS in the CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 15 at 6:00PM ET. T…
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: ALKA vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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