Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 90% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| O/U 1.5 | 75% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Levante UD O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| CF Villarreal C 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score | 56% |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% |
| CF Villarreal C 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| CF Villarreal C 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Villarreal C 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Levante UD 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 46% |
| Levante UD O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 42% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| CF Villarreal C (-1.5) | 36% |
| Levante UD (-2.5) | 36% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| O/U 3.5 | 31% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 30% |
| Levante UD O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Levante UD (-1.5) | 27% |
| Levante UD 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 21% |
| CF Villarreal C O/U 2.5 | 20% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 18% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| CF Villarreal C (-2.5) | 11% |
| O/U 5.5 | 8% |
Market context
The CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 90% YES. More markets for the Club Friendlies game, scheduled for August 5 at 4:00 AM ET.
Methodology
This page reviews CF Villarreal C vs. Levante UD - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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