Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Match O/U 40.5 | 61% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 48% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 39% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 3 Winner | 35% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton | 25% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 5% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to wimbledon atp: otto virtanen vs ben shelton. This market refers to the tennis match between Otto Virtanen and Ben Shelton in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Otto Virtanen' if …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Wimbledon ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Ben Shelton on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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