Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 40.5 | 48% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 Winner | 48% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 44% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 38% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 33% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 Winner | 28% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 15% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: yannick hanfmann vs giovanni mpetshi perricard. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This mark…
Methodology
This page reviews Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi … on Kalshi vs Polymarket
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