Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Andrea Guerrieri vs Daniil Glinka

Platform comparison

Market context

Andrea Guerrieri and Daniil Glinka are scheduled to meet in the Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger, with the event listed across live-score and odds platforms on 8 August 2026.[1][4][15] The market’s 48% YES price is effectively a slight lean to Guerrieri, while Tennis Tonic’s preview also had Guerrieri as the pick, with opening odds quoted around 1.78 for Guerrieri and 1.90 for Glinka.[9] That is broadly consistent with a near coin-flip contract rather than a strong directional view.

For context, Tennis Temple’s prediction split was much more Glinka-leaning, showing 78.6% of its community votes on Glinka and 21.4% on Guerrieri, which is the clearest divergence from the market price in the available sources.[13] Betmonitor’s odds-comparison page also shows the match in a fairly tight band rather than a one-sided line, reinforcing that the pre-match setup is close and liable to move on small information changes.[11] In that kind of pricing, a handful of ranking points, recent form, or a late line-up adjustment can matter more than the headline percentage.

The key catalysts are straightforward: confirmation that the match is actually played on schedule, the order of play, and whether either player withdraws or is delayed by the broader tournament timetable.[4][19] Because the contract settles to 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or pushed beyond seven days without a winner, any cancellation or major postponement becomes more important than marginal form debate. As of the latest live listings, both players remain attached to the fixture, but traders still need to watch for official tournament updates and live-score feeds through the session.[1][17][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Grodzisk Mazowiecki: Andrea Guerrieri vs Daniil Glinka across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.