Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 Winner | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 49% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 25% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe | 20% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to plovdiv 2: yannick alexandrescou vs radu mihai papoe. This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Alexandrescou and Radu Mihai Papoe in the Plovdiv 2, originally scheduled for August 7, 2026 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yannick …
Methodology
We track Plovdiv 2: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Radu Mihai Papoe across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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