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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner

Comparison of odds and platforms for "PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi vs Polymarket.

Scottie Scheffler 23% Rory McIlroy 7% Xander Schauffele 6% Keith Mitchell 5% Volume: $115K Liquidity: $690K Closes: 23 Aug 2026
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PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 23% 77% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 23% 77% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Scottie Scheffler23%
Rory McIlroy7%
Xander Schauffele6%
Keith Mitchell5%
Cameron Young5%
Ludvig Aberg4%
Sam Burns4%
Matt Fitzpatrick4%
Tommy Fleetwood4%
Chris Gotterup4%
Viktor Hovland4%
Si Woo Kim4%
Collin Morikawa4%
Patrick Cantlay3%
Wyndham Clark3%
Kurt Kitayama3%
Jake Knapp3%
Hideki Matsuyama3%
Maverick McNealy3%
Michael Brennan2%
Jacob Bridgeman2%
Eric Cole2%
Nicolas Echavarria2%
Rickie Fowler2%
Ryan Fox2%
Ryan Gerard2%
Russell Henley2%
Ryo Hisatsune2%
Nicolai Hojgaard2%
Tom Kim2%
Min Woo Lee2%
Alexander Noren2%
JT Poston2%
Aaron Rai2%
Kristoffer Reitan2%
Justin Rose2%
Adam Scott2%
J.J. Spaun2%
Sahith Theegala2%
Justin Thomas2%
Michael Thorbjornsen2%
Akshay Bhatia1%
Bud Cauley1%
Alex Fitzpatrick1%
Ben Griffin1%
Robert MacIntyre1%
Alex Smalley1%
Sepp Straka1%
Gary Woodland1%
Matt McCarty0%
Player 00%
Player 10%
Player 20%
Player 30%
Player 40%
Player 50%
Player 60%
Player 70%
Player 80%
Player 90%
Player 100%
Player 110%
Player 120%
Player 130%
Player 140%
Player 150%
Player 160%
Player 170%
Player 180%
Player 190%
Other0%

Market context

The PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner prediction market currently prices this outcome at 23% YES. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 BMW Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the BMW Championship tournament based on th…

Methodology

This page reviews PGA Tour: BMW Championship Winner across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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