How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A **6.5-or-above earthquake** during this week-long window is the event being priced, and the contract is already trading at a very high crowd-implied **96% YES**. That lines up with the market’s broad premise: large earthquakes occur regularly enough worldwide that a one-week interval can plausibly contain at least one qualifying event, especially when the threshold is only 6.5 and the scope is global. The USGS “M6+ in 2026” and significant-earthquakes pages show that the year has already produced multiple sizeable quakes, including a 6.8 near Kyushu, Japan on 28 July and several 6.1–6.3 events in early August, which supports the idea that the seismically active backdrop is intact.[7][1][9]

For historical framing, the key comparison is that a 96% price is not a forecast of a major disaster; it is a statement that at least one qualifying quake is statistically common over seven days. That said, the gap between a prediction-market price in the mid-90s and an even higher sportsbook-style line would usually leave only limited room for disagreement, so any meaningful divergence here would likely reflect different settlement assumptions rather than different seismic beliefs. Recent third-party earthquake trackers also show continuing global activity, with one live feed listing a 6.3 near the Kermadec Islands and a 6.3 in Mindanao on 5 August, though only USGS counts for resolution.[9][12]

The main catalyst for traders is not a scheduled announcement but the possibility of a late-reporting event appearing in USGS data before the window closes, because catalogue updates can lag the initial headlines. That matters more when a quake is near the threshold, since USGS magnitude revisions can push an event above or below 6.5 after the fact. With the settlement window ending at 03:59 UTC on 10 August, the final hours are the only period in which a newly posted USGS event could still change the result.[5][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.