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Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Pete Hegseth 6% Steve Witkoff 5% Benjamin Netanyahu 4% Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 4% Volume: $1.0M Liquidity: $554K Closes: 7 Jul 2026
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Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 6% 94% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 6% 94% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Pete Hegseth6%
Steve Witkoff5%
Benjamin Netanyahu4%
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi4%
Shehbaz Sharif3%
Marco Rubio3%
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah3%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa3%
JD Vance3%
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan3%
Jared Kushner2%
Abbas Araghchi2%
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani2%
King Abdullah II2%
Recep Tayyip Erdogan2%
Mohammed bin Salman1%
Mojtaba Khamenei1%
Donald Trump1%
Masoud Pezeshkian1%
Elon Musk1%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 6% YES probability for Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony?. On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed in…

Methodology

This page reviews Who will attend US-Iran signing ceremony? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Jordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction ReporterandChris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting Editor

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