Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains firmly in the presidency, with current crowd-implied probability for his removal by June 30, 2026, sitting at 0% on the relevant prediction market. This near-zero valuation reflects the absence of any active constitutional crisis, impeachment proceedings, or voluntary resignation announcement as of late June 2026. Unlike volatile sportsbook lines that occasionally swing on speculative headlines, prediction markets here anchor to institutional reality: no House impeachment vote has occurred, Senate removal is not imminent, and the 25th Amendment has not been invoked.

Historically, presidential removals have required extraordinary conditions—such as the 1974 resignation amid the Nixon impeachment or the 1865 assassination of Lincoln—neither of which parallels Trump’s current standing. Comparable cases like Clinton’s 1998 impeachment, which failed to remove him, show that even formal charges rarely alter tenure without bipartisan Senate consensus. Kalshi’s own estimate for Trump’s removal in his second term rose to 28.7% in early April 2026, yet that figure has not translated into near-term risk, underscoring the divergence between medium-term analyst consensus and immediate market odds[2].

Traders should monitor the 2026 midterm election outcomes, as Trump himself warned Republicans that losing Congress would trigger impeachment efforts[3]. Key catalysts include any Democratic-led House impeachment vote, Senate trial schedules, or sudden health disclosures that might activate the 25th Amendment. Recent Democratic rhetoric following Trump’s Iran threat also signals growing removal advocacy, though no formal mechanism has been launched[5][6]. Until such events materialise, the 0% probability remains grounded in institutional inertia.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.