Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively suspended, with traffic at less than 10% of normal volumes despite a recent ceasefire between the US and Iran[2]. The strait is currently closed, and commercial vessels have been barred since a brief reopening, a stark contrast to the typical 120 daily crossings seen in peacetime[1][6]. This near-standstill has persisted for weeks amid ongoing conflict, driving oil prices higher and disrupting global supply chains[3].

Historical precedents suggest that returning to 60 daily transit calls by mid-July is highly improbable given the current blockade and lack of resolution in peace negotiations[3]. Even with the June 17 agreement guaranteeing immediate navigation, only 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on the first day of reopening, far below the 60-call threshold required for a "Yes" resolution[4]. Analyst consensus and sportsbook lines diverge sharply from the 49% prediction-market implied probability, with most experts viewing the timeline as too tight for meaningful recovery[7].

Traders must monitor the July 19 deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports, a prerequisite for Iran to restore pre-war traffic levels[4]. The agreement stipulates that Iran must exert its "best efforts" to normalise flows by July 19, yet no concrete progress has been reported since the ceasefire[4]. Any delay in lifting the blockade or failure to meet the traffic restoration target will likely cement a "No" outcome, as current data shows minimal movement toward the required threshold[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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