Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next general election is scheduled for 27 October 2026, and this contract will pay out on the first person formally sworn in as prime minister afterwards, not on who leads in polls or serves in a caretaker role. On the current numbers, the contract sits at a **33%** crowd-implied chance for Benjamin Netanyahu, which is broadly in line with other platforms showing him in the low-to-mid 30s, while rival venues and model-led sites have typically given Gadi Eisenkot a clearer lead in the high 40s to low 50s. That gap matters: the market is not pricing Netanyahu as the favourite, but it is also not treating an opposition-led coalition as a foregone conclusion.[3][4][7][14]

The historical frame is that Israeli elections often turn less on first-place vote share than on coalition arithmetic, so “who wins” and “who is sworn in” can diverge sharply. Reuters reported in June that Eisenkot had emerged as a credible challenger and was rising in polling, while other coverage still showed Netanyahu as the best-known and, in some surveys, the most “suitable” leader. For traders, the key catalysts are likely to be coalition announcements after the vote, any shift in Lapid/Bennett-style alignment, and whether Netanyahu enters the race under the same legal and political constraints that have dogged his tenure; if the election is brought forward, the settlement clock on this market moves with it.[2][5][8][15][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.