Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

A country joining the Abraham Accords before 2027 would require a formal, publicly acknowledged normalisation agreement with Israel before the market’s 31 December 2026 deadline. The crowd has priced that outcome at about 6% yes, which is below the broad sub-20% range seen across the listed candidates on related prediction markets and well under the 19% to 26% levels currently attached to the frontrunner outcomes on Polymarket and Paridesk, depending on venue and outcome mix.[1][2][3]

Historically, the Accords have expanded through rare diplomatic openings rather than routine bargaining, so a low single-digit probability is consistent with the small number of governments able to move quickly and the political cost of doing so. Reporting in June said Kazakhstan would join in a symbolic step, showing that formal participation can still happen when a government is willing and the US pushes the process, but that was described as unusual rather than a template for broader normalisation.[6] More broadly, coverage in May noted that the Accords remained intact but expansion was effectively deadlocked, with several regional states publicly resistant to joining.[4][5]

For traders, the key catalysts are official signing ceremonies, joint statements from Israel and the relevant government, and any US-mediated announcements tying new cooperation to the Abraham Accords framework. Watch for summit travel, defence or trade delegations, and any movement in states already discussed in market commentary, especially those with occasional diplomatic contact with Israel.[1][3][6] The main cross-platform divergence is that Polymarket currently shows higher implied chances for specific names such as Somaliland and Jordan, while Paridesk highlights Somaliland as the heaviest-backed outcome but still with a crowded field, suggesting the 6% market price here is more conservative than some peer venues.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.