"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Young Washington, Angel Studios’ historical epic about a young George Washington, is currently on its opening weekend (July 3–5, 2026), with Friday’s domestic gross estimated at $7.60 million from 2,700 locations[2]. This figure sits far below early tracking that projected a $23–35 million opening, creating a stark divergence between analyst consensus and current performance[3]. While prediction markets imply a 0% YES probability for the film hitting higher brackets, sportsbook lines on similar box-office contracts have not yet adjusted to this collapse, suggesting a lag in cross-platform odds alignment.

Historically, opening-weekend collapses like Supergirl’s 76% second-weekend drop—where Friday’s $10 million estimate fell to $9 million—show how quickly early momentum can evaporate when audience turnout falters[1]. Young Washington’s $7.6 million Friday, compared to Supergirl’s $46.5 million domestic total by July 1, frames this as a high-risk scenario where the film may not recover to meet higher bracket thresholds. The Numbers’ final 3-day figures, expected after July 5, will be the definitive settlement metric, and any studio estimate revisions could shift the outcome[8].

Traders should monitor Saturday and Sunday’s final gross updates, as well as any post-weekend press releases from Angel Studios regarding distribution adjustments or marketing pushes[5]. Box Office Theory’s forecast range of $23 million+ for Young Washington now appears increasingly optimistic given Friday’s performance, and the film’s fate hinges on whether weekend turnout can narrow the gap between current and projected totals[5]. With the settlement window ending July 6, 2026, the final domestic gross will determine the market resolution, and any divergence between final figures and bracket thresholds will resolve to the higher range[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.