Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max”, so the key question is whether the day finishes in the low 30s or spikes into the mid-30s Celsius. August normals put Hong Kong’s mean maximum at about 31.1°C for 11 August, while broader August averages are usually around 30–31°C, which makes a reading in the 30–33°C band the historical centre of gravity rather than an outlier.[1][4][18]

That backdrop makes the current 0% YES crowd price look detached from the climatology, especially versus platform pricing that is already centred much higher. Polymarket’s market page shows the front outcomes clustered around 34°C at 41% and 35°C at 35%, implying traders there expect a hotter-than-normal afternoon and very little weight on sub-30°C outcomes.[6] For comparison, recent August history cited by weather services shows Hong Kong can still run into the upper 30s, with 36.8°C recorded on 9 August 2026 and yesterday’s highs near the upper 80s to upper 90s Fahrenheit on consumer weather trackers, so the live temperature regime has not been cool by any standard.[2][7]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s daytime updates, because this contract settles on the published daily extract and only once the final data are available on the Hong Kong Observatory climate page.[3][12] The main catalyst is the afternoon sea-breeze and cloud-rain balance: persistent southeasterlies and moisture can cap the high closer to 33–34°C, while stronger sunshine pushes it into the 35°C area or above, which is broadly consistent with the market’s current platform split.[6][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.