Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on the title of the film with the highest domestic calendar gross in 2026, excluding any revenue earned outside that year. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting traders believe no single film will dominate the domestic box office as projected, or that the data resolution may be contested. This zero probability diverges sharply from sportsbook lines and analyst consensus, which consistently point to *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* as the likely winner, with domestic gross already exceeding $429 million and worldwide totals surpassing $1 billion[1][2].

Historically, franchise sequels released in the spring have dominated domestic charts, such as *Avengers: Endgame* and *Avatar: The Way of Water*, which set benchmarks for multi-hundred-million domestic runs[6]. *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* follows this pattern, having opened on 1 April 2026 and quickly overtaking rivals like *Michael* and *Project Hail Mary* in both domestic and global rankings[1][8]. The 0% implied probability appears inconsistent with this trajectory, especially given the film’s lead of nearly $60 million over its closest competitor in domestic gross[2].

Traders should monitor final December domestic tallies and any delays in official data release, as the market requires final figures by 7 January 2027[1]. A key catalyst is the potential for *Toy Story 5*, released 19 June 2026, to surge in the holiday season and challenge the Mario lead[8]. Recent reports confirm *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* remains the top-grossing film globally, but domestic holiday performance will determine whether it retains the crown[5]. Any divergence between prediction-market odds and these confirmed rankings warrants scrutiny, as the data source may shift if final numbers are unavailable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest grossing movie in 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.