Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi vs Polymarket) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Creeper | 100% |
| Skeleton | 100% |
| Spider | 100% |
| Wither Skeleton | 100% |
| Zombified Piglin | 100% |
| Creeper (again) | 100% |
| Zombie | 50% |
| Wither Skeleton (again) | 50% |
| Creeper (again) | 50% |
| Skeleton (again) | 50% |
| Creeper (again) | 25% |
| Polar Bear | 10% |
| Ghast | 6% |
| Piglin | 5% |
| Zombie (again) | 5% |
| Blaze | 4% |
| Enderman | 3% |
| Skeleton (again) | 2% |
| Phantom | 1% |
| Iron Golem | 1% |
| Witch | 1% |
| Pillager | 1% |
| Hoglin | 1% |
| Wither Skeleton (again) | 1% |
| Zombified Piglin (again) | 1% |
| Warden | 1% |
| Elder Guardian | 1% |
| Vex | 1% |
| Spider (again) | 1% |
| Slime | 0% |
| Wither | 0% |
| Ender Dragon | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Which mobs will eliminate Kai or Speed?. Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET, in which they will attempt to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Which mobs will eliminate Kai or Speed? on Kalshi vs Polymarket
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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