Total Internet Blackout in Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

A total internet blackout across Iran would represent a near-complete cessation of data traffic, measured by Cloudflare's monitoring infrastructure. The threshold is stringent: bytes transferred must drop to 1% or below the preceding four weeks' maximum for at least six consecutive hours. This differs markedly from partial outages or throttling, which Iran has deployed repeatedly during political unrest without triggering full disconnection.

Iran has experienced several near-total blackouts since 2019, most notably during November 2019 fuel-subsidy protests when connectivity fell by roughly 90% for several days. However, complete sustained shutdowns lasting six consecutive hours across all major internet service providers remain rare. The 0% crowd probability reflects this historical pattern: whilst Iranian authorities possess the technical capability and have demonstrated willingness to restrict access, maintaining a total blackout requires coordination across multiple state-controlled and private operators, creating practical friction. Previous incidents suggest authorities typically restore partial connectivity within hours to manage economic and administrative functions.

Traders should monitor developments around scheduled elections, major anniversaries of political events, and any escalation in regional tensions that might prompt security responses. Recent reporting from Reuters and AFP has documented Iran's expanding surveillance infrastructure, though this typically manifests as selective blocking rather than wholesale disconnection. The settlement window extends to August 2026, providing ample time for unforeseen political crises, though the historical baseline suggests such an event remains materially unlikely without extraordinary circumstances.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi vs Polymarket trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.