Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has not officially announced a mandatory fee for all commercial vessels passing the Strait of Hormuz, despite recent diplomatic friction and a peace deal that ambiguously permits "maritime service fees" rather than tolls[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 2% for a "Yes" resolution reflects the high threshold required for a general policy announcement, distinguishing this from isolated demands or tiered access schemes that have occurred during the 2026 crisis[2]. Unlike the ad hoc charges of $1–2 million paid in yuan during the ceasefire period, which targeted specific non-hostile nations, the market requires a formal, universally applicable tariff to trigger settlement[3].

Historical precedents suggest that while Iran has threatened closure and imposed informal tolls, it has consistently avoided ratifying the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas, leaving the legal basis for official tolling uncertain[3]. The divergence between sportsbook lines, which often overreact to geopolitical headlines, and the 2% prediction-market probability highlights a consensus among analysts that a formal announcement is unlikely before the August 2026 deadline. Traders should monitor official statements from Tehran’s foreign ministry regarding the implementation of the peace deal, as any shift from "service fees" to explicit "tolls" would be a critical catalyst[1]. Recent reports indicate Oman has rejected Iranian proposals to formalise tolls, further reducing the likelihood of a bilateral agreement that could legitimise such charges[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.