Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve will hold three policy meetings between late July and late October 2026, with the FOMC deciding whether to raise, lower, or hold the federal funds rate at each session. This market resolves YES if at least one rate cut occurs across those three meetings; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the Fed to maintain or raise rates throughout the window.

The current implied probability sits in stark contrast to historical precedent. Between 2019 and 2023, the Fed cut rates in nine consecutive meetings following the pandemic shock, establishing a pattern where extended hold periods without cuts became increasingly rare once easing cycles began. The 2015–2018 tightening cycle saw sustained rate rises, but even then, markets typically priced in some probability of policy reversal within a three-month window once economic data softened. A zero probability for any cut across three meetings reflects either extreme confidence in sustained inflation or growth, or reflects the specific timing of this market relative to current Fed communications.

Traders should monitor June and July inflation data releases, which will directly inform the July 28–29 meeting decision. The Fed's June Summary of Economic Projections, due mid-June, will signal the Committee's rate path expectations for the remainder of 2026. Any material deterioration in labour market data or unexpected disinflation could shift market pricing sharply. Recent commentary from Fed officials has emphasised data dependency, meaning employment reports and PCE readings in the weeks preceding each meeting will drive both analyst consensus and cross-platform odds movements.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi vs Polymarket. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.