Ethereum Up or Down on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market measures whether Ethereum's price at noon ET on 13 August 2026 will be higher or lower than its price at the same time on 12 August 2026, using Binance's ETH/USDT 1-minute candle closes as the settlement source. A 0% implied probability for "Up" suggests the crowd expects a price decline or flat movement over that 24-hour window, though the 50-50 tie resolution clause creates a meaningful tail risk that could shift final payouts if prices remain static.

Twenty-four-hour intraday price movements in Ethereum historically show high variance, with daily swings of 3–8% commonplace during periods of moderate volatility. The current 0% reading on the "Up" outcome is unusually extreme for a single-day directional bet; comparable Ethereum daily-direction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi typically see implied probabilities in the 40–60% range even during trending periods. This suggests either strong bearish positioning ahead of 13 August or sparse liquidity concentrating trader conviction.

Traders should monitor scheduled macroeconomic data releases in the US (inflation reports, jobless claims) and any Ethereum-specific announcements regarding network upgrades or regulatory developments in the week preceding settlement. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and Bitcoin's price action will likely dominate Ethereum's directional bias; historically, Ethereum tracks Bitcoin with a 0.7–0.9 correlation coefficient on intraday timeframes. Settlement occurs at 16:00 UTC on 13 August, giving traders until the final candle closes to adjust positions based on late-day price action.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi vs Polymarket, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.